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2023 Housing Market Forecast

The housing market is changing. America experienced an extreme seller's housing market from the middle of 2020 to mid-2022. Most sellers were getting full asking price between July 2020 and June 2021, while 35% of buyers were offering over asking price.1 It was a high-demand, low-supply environment that greatly favored home sellers.


Is it still a seller's market?

The U.S. housing market is no longer a seller's market. But it isn't a buyer's market either. Rather, it's a mixed market. There's been a cooling of housing demand due to high home prices and rising interest rates. This has led to a decline in sales, and in some cases, a drop in asking price. But there's still a limited supply of homes on the market, which is keeping prices higher than they were pre-pandemic.2


Have home prices stabilized in Southeast markets?

Home prices have stabilized throughout the country because of uncertainty. FitchRatings predicts a recession in the second quarter of 20233 although consumer spending and the job markets remain strong. This leads to many potential homebuyers adopting a "wait-and-see" position.

In the Southeast, prices fell in Miami-Dade in September 2022 for the first time since 2021.4 Home prices started dropping in late summer 2022 in Atlanta and are now starting to stabilize.5 Tampa made the top 10 list of housing markets vulnerable to a downturn, and prices have stabilized there as well.6


Is it different with high-end properties?

Luxury homes, defined as homes in the top 5% of the market, are experiencing the largest decline in sales. Activity dropped more than 28% year-over-year for the three months ending August 31.7 Higher-end homes are also experiencing a cooling of price increases.7 The median sales price of these homes is $1.1 million, which is up 10% from last year — still an increase but not nearly as high as the prior year when house prices rose over 20%.7

Many high-end home buyers are reluctant to buy a home during a time of higher interest rates, economic uncertainty, and a longer-than average bear stock market.8 Buyers who can purchase a higher-end home using cash or who can make a large down payment tend to be more likely to buy. Higher-end buyers who plan to finance most of the home might be priced out of a $1.5 million home with the higher interest rates, but they could buy a home priced around $800,000.7

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The U.S. housing market is no longer a seller's market. But it isn't a buyer's market either.

What's the average time on market for properties in the Southeast?

When you're ready to buy a home, you need to know what's happening in your local market as well as the national market. Here's a snapshot of what's happening in three major metro areas in the Southeast:


Miami

In October 2022, the median price for a home was $525,000, and the average days on market was 56. Year-over-year, prices have risen almost 22%, the average days on market has increased by one day, and home sales are down from 1,309 to 859.9

The price of luxury homes in Miami increased 27% to $2.8 million year-over-year in the three months ending August 31, 2022. Sales were down an incredible 55%.7


Atlanta

In October 2022, the median price for a home was $439,000 and sold after 31 days. Year-over-year, prices have risen over 10%, average days on the market has increased four days, and homes sales are down from 1,194 to 713.10

The price of luxury homes in Atlanta increased 25% to over $1.1 million year-over-year in the three months ending August 31, 2022. Sales were down over 38%.7


Tampa

In October 2022, the median price for a home was $400,000 and sold after 27 days. Year-over-year, prices have risen 19%, average days on the market has increased by 16 days, and home sales are down from 998 to 739.11

The price of luxury homes in Tampa increased over 39% year-over-year in the three months ending August 31, 2022, to almost $1.4 million, and sales were down almost 40%.7

Although homes prices are still higher in late 2022 than they were last year at this time, fewer homes are selling. The ones that are selling are taking longer to sell.


Where are high-end homes increasing the most in price?

In the luxury home market in the Southeast, prices are still rising, with Florida experiencing the largest price gains. Tampa's luxury home prices rose the most, followed by West Palm Beach, Jacksonville, Orlando, and Fort Lauderdale.7


Is buying a home still a good investment?

The short answer is "yes." Homeownership is a good way to achieve financial stability and success. Another consideration for people on the fence about buying a house in an uncertain market is the expense of renting. Home prices might be elevated, but rents continue to rise as well. Vacancies are at historic lows, meaning there will be limited supply of rental units combined with increased demand because of fewer people buying homes.12 Some experts predict interest rates will level off at some point in 2023, at which time homebuyers could possibly refinance depending on terms of the loan.13

When you’re shopping for a house and a mortgage, it’s beneficial to understand the numbers. Find a Synovus Mortgage Loan Officer online to help you. 

Important disclosure information

This content is general in nature and does not constitute legal, tax, accounting, financial or investment advice. You are encouraged to consult with competent legal, tax, accounting, financial or investment professionals based on your specific circumstances. We do not make any warranties as to accuracy or completeness of this information, do not endorse any third-party companies, products, or services described here, and take no liability for your use of this information.

  1. National Association of Realtors, "A Record Share of Homes are Selling Above Asking Price," published May 31, 2021. Accessed October 2, 2024. Back
  2. Robin Rothstein, "Housing Market Predictions In 2022: Will Prices Drop?" Forbes, updated October 31, 2022, accessed November 29, 2022. Back
  3. FitchRatings, "Global Credit Risks Rise as Recessions, Gas Crisis Loom," published October 18, 2022, accessed November 29, 2022. Back
  4. Natu Tweh, "Home prices in South Florida are finally falling – but is it enough for struggling buyers?" WLRN, published September 27, 2022, accessed November 29, 2022. Back
  5. Crystal Bui, "Atlanta housing market begins swinging in buyers' favor," ANF, published August 19, 2022, accessed November 29, 2022. Back
  6. Eric Glasser, "Survey: Tampa's housing market among nation's most vulnerable in the event of a recession," WTSP, published August 1, 2022, updated August 2, 2022, accessed November 29, 2022. Back
  7. Lily Katz, "Luxury-Home Purchases Plummet 28%, the Biggest Drop on Record," Redfin, published September 22, 2022, accessed December 1, 2022. Back
  8. Q.ai, "When Will The Bear Market End?" Forbes, published November 23, 2022, accessed November 30, 2022. Back
  9. Redfin, "Miami Housing Market," accessed November 30, 2022. Back
  10. Redfin, "Atlanta Housing Market," accessed November 30, 2022. Back
  11. Redfin, "Tampa Housing Market," accessed November 30, 2022. Back
  12. Danielle Hale, "Housing Forecast 2023," Realtor.com, published November 30, 2022, accessed November 30, 2022. Back
  13. Robin Rothstein, "Mortgage Rates Forecast For 2023: Will Rates Drop?" Forbes, updated November 30, 2022, accessed November 30, 2022. Back